AOL: Ahead of their time, and Failing

We're all familiar with America On Line (AOL) and if you're like me, you enjoyed the free coasters they sent in the mail (AOL trial CDROMs) back in the 90's. AOL is an interesting story for me, because I grew up hearing about it, and also hating it. AOL started in the 80's with an online video game service where you could pay a subscription and download video games directly to your Atari console. That business however wasn't working, for a number of reasons, and AOL moved to an Online Internet Service provide, a rather bloated, bug ridden, sluggish, and annoying ISP to boot. That said, at one time AOL had over 30 million subscribers (in 2001) with stock valued over $226 Billion (with a B) and is noted as one of the founding innovators of the internet, bringing it to the mainstream masses relatively effectively. That success was short lived as AOL's software and services became less desirable, and in 2006 the company dwindled to 10% of its former glory with stock valued at only $20 Billion and a subscriber base of less than 4.4 million. Today AOL has delt with acquisitions and mergers, and is struggling to find adequate management to lead the company along a successful path to cash.

I'm writing about AOL because they were very much ahead of their time, but have been unable to really find sustainable market to keep themselves afloat. In the 1980's their company was providing down-loadable game content directly to your console, years ahead of similar services such as Steam. Yet Steam is a high successful company and business is booming for them. Namely because they came around the time broadband and PC games were really gaining momentum and the service they provided is sustainable, and very useful especially as internet speeds increase. AOL's founder also wanted to provide a server where users could buy music on demand, but the idea was rejected by Warner Brothers. Which is interesting because iTunes today, is an incredibly successful company. Again, AOL was a little premature with the idea, but once MP3 players hit it big, and broadband made music online viable, that market was ripe.

Sometimes being ahead of your time can lead to incredible success, but not always, it is possible to be too far ahead of the times, and alienate your customers, or worse, your investors.  (Look at the idiot to the left for a perfect example of what being too far ahead of your time can look like to potential customers)  If the people who will fund your venture and the people who will pay for your product cannot see how your product fits in to the world you will fail. It could be the most profound and innovative idea, yet you will find no success in that endeavor simply because the market isn't ready for your product. There is a special moment when a market is very ripe with potential customers, yet free of stiff competition, and spotting when that market is at its critical mass and having the epiphany required to harvest that fruit is very rare yet extremely rewarding. It kills me when I see a business who sells a product that's so obvious I can't imagine how I didn't think of it, and at the same time I can't imagine how the world existed without it. When you see those companies, you know they'll be successful, and when you see companies like AOL, you know they will eventually fail.